Weekly THIS AND THAT for April 29, 2007: More Elderly, Fewer Babies

This and That:
More Elderly, Fewer Babies

The latest population projections point to a big increase in the number of elderly people in the coming decades. Last month the United Nations Population Division published the “World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.” It forecasts a world population of 9.2 billion by 2050, up from the current 6.7 billion. The increase will come from the less developed countries, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050.

In the economically developed nations, the report expects the population to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion. In fact, it would decline if it were not for immigration. The United Nations calculates that there will be a net migration from developing to developed countries of around 2.3 million people annually. In all countries, however, by 2050 the average age will be significantly higher. No less than half of the increase between 2005 and 2050 is expected to come from a rise in the population 60 and over. By contrast, the number of those under 15 will decline slightly. Aging will be particularly marked in the developed regions, where the population 60 and over is expected to nearly increase from 245 million to 406 million. That’s a 66% increase! The 2006 Revision also forecasts that fertility will continue to decline in developing countries. The study projects a drop from 2.75 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.05 in 2045-2050. The projected population level for 2050 could, however, prove to be too high.

Only a few years ago, population concerns were centered on what was supposed to be the threat due to a boom in births. The exaggerated fears of a population boom led to many abuses, such as forced sterilizations and abortions. Now, however, the 2006 Revision states that the world population is in the midst of an “unprecedented transformation” due to a change from a situation of high mortality and high fertility to one of low mortality and low fertility. By 2045, the number of persons in the world aged 60 and over is set to surpass, for the first time in history, the number of those under 15.

By 2050 the continued aging of the population means that all developed countries are expected to have median ages higher than 40 years. Meanwhile, the populations in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean will be undergoing a more rapid aging than the developed regions, due to the fertility reductions imposed as a result of family planning programs.

This will bring with it a big reduction in the working population and paying taxes to support those who are retired. The support ratio – the ratio of persons aged 15 to 64 over the sum of the number of children and of persons aged 65 or over – is expected to begin declining after 2010 in Europe, Northern America and Oceania, after 2015 in Asia and after 2025 in Latin America and the Caribbean. By 2050, Europe is expected to have the lowest support ratio, at 1.4 persons of working age for every dependant. Other regions are expected to have support ratios ranging from 1.6 in Northern America to 1.9 in Africa.

The financial challenges caused by an aging population are receiving growing attention. On March 13, 2007 the London Financial Times published an article on the problems faced by Singapore. Singapore, with its successful economy, should be well placed to handle a growing number of elderly. It has also avoided setting up a costly welfare system. Nevertheless, by 2030 Singapore is expected to have a quarter of its population comprised of persons above 65 years of age. With many of the older workers in low-paying jobs, and the prospect of only 2.2 workers to support each elderly person, compared with 10 workers in 2000, a growing income gap between rich and poor is forecast.

On April 5, 2006, Archbishop Celestino Migliore, Permanent Observer of the Holy See to the United Nations, addressed a session of the U.N.’s Commission on Population and Development of the Economic and Social Council. Radical population policies in past years have caused serious problems due to falling birthrates. “If the development of the world’s peoples is to be both sustainable and sane, such flawed policies will have to be replaced by truly people-centered ones,” he argued. This is a challenge, indeed, for a rapidly aging world.